redictably, some of that development has
slowed over the last year due to global
recession and lower energy prices, with their
resulting impact on the economies of the region.
However, according to the International Monetary
Fund (IMF), the current economic picture varies
considerably between different countries, with Azerbaijan
and Turkmenistan, for instance, continuing to do well while
Kazakhstan struggles.
In a report on the economic prospects for the countries
of the Caucasus and Central Asia published in early October,
IMF Middle East and Central Asia Director Masood Ahmed
said growth for the region as a whole was projected to drop
from 6. 6 percent in 2008 to 1. 5 percent in 2009.
“Within that, there are some big differences across countries and there are also differences in terms of their prospects for next year, but I think the broad distinction is that
the energy exporters in the region have done reasonably well
and the energy importing countries have been particularly
badly hit,” he stated.
Specifically, noted the IMF, oil exporters Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan would record solid growth in 2009,
“owing to long-term energy export contracts, supportive policies and limited linkages to international markets.” Ahmed
added: “Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have all
managed to weather the impact reasonably well. They are
projected to grow by between 4 and 8 percent this year,
despite a severe drop in exports.”
However, he continued, the picture in Kazakhstan was different. “Kazakhstan, which has in fact had a very significant
and substantial anti-crisis program, is still facing virtually no
growth, maybe even a small contraction of its economy this
year, which is a result of a combination of being hit both by
the oil crisis and by a banking crisis.”
Looking ahead, the IMF suggested that with global energy
demand increasing, most of the Caucasus/Central Asia
region’s energy exporters are expected to grow strongly in
2010. “One exception is Kazakhstan, which is likely to see
growth contract by about two percent in 2009, with recovery
in 2010 held back by lingering problems in the banking
system.”
Despite the impact of economic recession and the slowing
or even postponement of some oil/gas sector development
projects in the region, international interest in the longer
term potential of Caspian energy resources remains high.
In early October, for example, a visit to Kazakhstan by the
President of France, Nicolas Sarkozy, was followed by news
of a series of energy deals involving French companies.
The most significant, said to be worth $1.5 billion, was
an agreement between French energy giants Total and GDF
Suez and Kazakhstan state energy company Kazmunaigaz to
develop the Caspian Sea’s Khvalynkskoye gas field. Under
that deal, it was reported, the two French companies will
take a total 25 percent stake in the gas field by buying half
